Dereck's Secular Market Framework
Today’s Change (Oct 22, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A market-climate strategy that shifts between the S&P 500, tech, defensive stocks, bonds, and an inverse Nasdaq fund based on whether U.S. stocks look strong, weak, overheated, or oversold.
How it worksThis strategy first asks: is the U.S. stock market in a strong long-term climate or a weak one? It judges that by comparing long-term trend lines on SPY, the fund that tracks the S&P 500.
If the long-term climate is strong, it usually owns SPY. If stocks look a bit overheated, it mixes in long-term Treasury bonds (TLT). If the market weakens, it may either hide in safer short-term bonds (SHY) or try to buy beaten-down tech through XLK or SOXX.
If the long-term climate is weak, it gets much more defensive. It may hold medium- or long-term Treasury bonds (IEF, IEI, TLT), defensive consumer-staples stocks (XLP), and sometimes PSQ, which goes up when the Nasdaq-100 falls. In short: strong market = mostly stocks; weak market = more defense, bonds, and occasional downside protection.
Value propAn adaptive, regime-driven strategy that tilts to stocks in strong markets and to bonds/defense in weak ones. Out-of-sample return ~21.2% vs 20.9% for the S&P, with far smaller drawdowns (12.1% vs 18.8%), similar risk, and positive alpha.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.14 | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.57 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 679.56% | 10.96% | -0.05% | 3.57% | 0.63 | |
| 3,523.74% | 19.94% | -0.05% | 3.57% | 1.27 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$362,373.71Regulatory Fees
$645.66
Total Slippage
$5,554.93
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 3, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 3%
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend-following, regime switching, tactical asset allocation, us equities, treasuries, tech sector, defensive, inverse etf
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 10 assets in total
Ticker
Type
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
XLK
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLP
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks