Dereck Nielsen All Weather Portfolio
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Rules-based all-weather mix: 40% tactical tech/S&P that can use 2x bull or inverse hedges; 60% commodities, gold, and Treasuries with trend filters. Ramps risk up in uptrends and cuts to cash/bonds in downturns. May receive a K-1 (from DBC).
Two sleeves. Offense (~40%): trades Nasdaq/S&P via QQQ/SPY and their 2x bull/bear ETFs (QLD, SSO, QID, PSQ, SDS, SH). Defense (~60%): trend-follow gold (GLD), broad commodities (DBC), and Treasuries (TLT/IEF/IEI/SHV). A long-term trendline (200-day) is the green/red light; a short-term hot/cold meter (RSI) times entries. In uptrends it adds leverage; in selloffs it hedges or moves to cash/bonds. Sometimes tilts to semis (SMH/USD). Note: DBC issues a K-1.
Out-of-sample edge: Sharpe ~1.91 vs 1.41, annualized return ~24.28% vs 22.54%, max drawdown ~12.28% vs 18.76%, beta ~0.62. A two-sleeve, trend-following strategy that grows in up markets and protects in downturns.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.13 | 0.39 | 0.4 | 0.64 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 585.13% | 14.59% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.9 | |
| 1,272.11% | 20.37% | 2.88% | 7.53% | 1.85 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$137,210.67Regulatory Fees
$196.82
Total Slippage
$1,167.16
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 22, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 7%
Type
Stocks
Category
All-weather,multi-asset,tactical allocation,trend following,momentum,crash protection,hedging,leveraged etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 17 assets in total
Ticker
Type
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SDS
ProShares UltraShort S&P500
Stocks
SH
ProShares Short S&P500
Stocks