Dereck Nielsen All Weather Portfolio
Today’s Change (Nov 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
An active “all-weather” strategy that aggressively trades U.S. stocks—especially tech—while using bonds, gold, commodities, and even bearish funds as protection when market trends weaken.
This strategy splits money into two parts: an aggressive stock-timing side and a safer diversifier side.
On the stock side, it mainly trades the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq. When trends look strong, it owns them—sometimes with extra-aggressive 2x funds. When markets look overheated, it shifts to long-term U.S. government bonds. When markets weaken, it may move to bonds, very short-term Treasury funds, or funds that rise when stocks fall.
Separately, it only owns commodities, gold, and medium-term Treasury bonds when each of those is in an upward trend; otherwise it parks that money in short-term Treasuries.
Out-of-sample edge: a trend-following, bear-protected multi-asset strategy that beats the S&P on risk-adjusted basis with smaller drawdowns. OOS Sharpe 1.60 vs 1.32; OOS return 20.28% vs 20.16%; max drawdown 12.28% vs 18.76%; Calmar 1.65.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.13 | 0.4 | 0.41 | 0.64 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 672.84% | 14.82% | -1.04% | -0.34% | 0.92 | |
| 1,353.08% | 19.82% | -2.26% | -2.19% | 1.8 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$145,307.83Regulatory Fees
$186.85
Total Slippage
$1,341.16
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 22, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 7%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, trend following, momentum, risk management, leveraged etfs, inverse etfs, multi-asset, tech-heavy
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 17 assets in total
Ticker
Type
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SDS
ProShares UltraShort S&P500
Stocks
SH
ProShares Short S&P500
Stocks