[DEPRECATED] V2 | Fund Surfing | Michael B | Commodities
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A rule‑based “fund surfer” that buys recent losers in calm times, but in turmoil flips to big moves in long Treasuries (TMF/TMV). Uses UVXY to gauge fear, RSI to pick beaten‑down funds, and 5‑day drawdown to choose TMF vs TMV; sometimes adds commodities.
RSI=recent strength score; lower=more sold off. UVXY (fear gauge) sets regime.
Calm (UVXY RSI<70): 100% in the 1 fund with the lowest RSI from SPY(S&P 500), QQQ(Nasdaq‑100), UPRO/TQQQ/TECL/SOXL(3x stock), or SHY(short‑term Treasuries).
Hot: hold TMF or TMV(3x long‑Treasury up/down) based on the smaller 5‑day drop; if both calm, split 50/50 into the 2 lowest‑RSI from that list plus DBC/DBA(commodities).
Out-of-sample, this regime-switching strategy targets higher upside (≈46% annualized) vs SPY’s ≈22%, with fear-driven Treasury bets and mean-reversion in calm markets. Potential for stronger long-run returns, but with higher volatility.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 2.24 | 0.39 | 0.63 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 623.63% | 14.84% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.91 | |
| 1,188,403.62% | 92.72% | 3.87% | -5.5% | 1.4 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$118,850,361.80Regulatory Fees
$425,067.49
Total Slippage
$3,030,378.70
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 28, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Rsi mean reversion, volatility filter (uvxy), leveraged etfs (equities/treasuries), commodities tilt, tactical rotation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
DBA
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks