[DEPRECATED] V2 | Fund Surfing | Michael B | Commodities
Today’s Change (Jan 19, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Switches between buying the most beaten‑down fund in calm markets and riding 3x Treasury bull/bear waves in stressed markets. In some stressed periods, it instead splits into two oversold funds (including commodities). High risk due to 3x ETFs.
1) Use UVXY’s 20‑day RSI (a 0–100 “heat” gauge of recent moves) to judge stress. If RSI < 70 (calm): put 100% into the single fund with the lowest 20‑day RSI from SOXL/TECL/TQQQ/UPRO/QQQ/SPY/SHY (low RSI = recently sold off).
2) If RSI ≥ 70 (stress): if both TMF and TMV had <10% 5‑day drawdowns, split between the two most oversold (5‑day RSI) among stocks + commodities (adds DBC/DBA). Otherwise hold whichever of TMF (3x long bonds) or TMV (3x short bonds) is holding up better. Uses 3x funds; very risky.
Out-of-sample annualized return ~44% vs S&P ~22%; Calmar ~0.54, Sharpe ~0.88. Regime-aware switches between oversold equity/commodity bets and leveraged Treasuries aim for higher upside with higher drawdown risk (≈82%).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.51 | 2.22 | 0.39 | 0.62 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 630.52% | 15.06% | 2.19% | 5.01% | 0.92 | |
| 1,306,274.6% | 95.12% | 7.66% | 28.36% | 1.42 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$130,637,460.44Regulatory Fees
$403,549.27
Total Slippage
$2,875,950.74
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 28, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical rotation, mean reversion, volatility regime, leveraged etfs, treasuries, commodities, tech-heavy
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
DBA
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
Stocks
SPY
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks