A daily, two-asset rotation strategy that goes long DBO (oil futures fund) when oil shows a bullish trend and momentum; otherwise it moves to SHV (short-term U.S. Treasuries) for defense. It uses a 50/200-day trend filter and a short-term momentum check (around 20 days) to decide which asset to hold.

- Every day the portfolio is reviewed and rebalanced. It doesn’t mix assets; it chooses one primary holding at a time (full weight to either DBO or SHV). - Trend filter: The system first checks whether DBO is in an uptrend, defined by the 50-day moving average of DBO’s price being at least as high as the 200-day moving average. If this is not true, the strategy assigns 100% to SHV (defensive position). - Momentum check (only if the trend is positive): If the trend is up, the strategy then tests momentum for DBO using shorter-term indicators (a 20-day window is involved) and a cumulative-return measure. If these momentum signals meet their thresholds, the strategy holds DBO with 100% weight. - If momentum signals fail even though the trend is up, the strategy defaults to SHV with 100% weight. - The result is a simple, binary rotation: DBO when oil shows a positive trend and strong momentum; SHV otherwise. The daily rebalance means the position can switch every day based on these signals. - Risks to note: DBO is oil-futures-based and can be volatile; SHV provides safety but will underperform in strong stock or commodity rallies. The approach has no explicit diversification beyond the two assets and relies on a couple of technical signals rather than fundamentals.

A low-beta, defensive rotation that kept out-of-sample drawdowns modest (6.6% vs S&P 18.8%) with far lower risk, acting as a portfolio stabilizer. Note: out-of-sample returns are negative, so use as diversification, not core growth.