Darpa Super Simple V1.5 + Darpa Low Drama Mama v1.9
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A 2-rule, 50/50, daily-rebalanced strategy using RSI-driven signals to rotate between a volatility hedge (UVXY) and a pool of leveraged tech/semiconductor ETFs, plus risk-minded asset picks (bonds/gold). Aims for low drawdown with opportunistic upside in leveraged themes; backtested since 2011.
- The portfolio is split 50/50 between two rule sets (Darpa Super Simple V1.5 and Darpa Low Drama Mama v1.9) that rebalance daily.
- Each half runs its own signal logic to select assets from pools of ETFs, including volatility (UVXY), leveraged tech/semiconductor ETFs (SOXL, TECL, TQQQ, ROM, USD, etc.), and other theme ETFs.
- Rule set A (Darpa Super Simple) uses RSI on QQQ with a short window. If RSI(QQQ,5) is above a high threshold (overbought/extreme), it tilts into UVXY. Otherwise it picks the two assets with the lowest RSI from a list of leveraged tech/semiconductors/healthcare ETFs, aiming for a contrarian moment when momentum is fading.
- Rule set B (Darpa Low Drama Mama) also watches RSI signals but on a different window; if RSI(QQQ,9) is above 81 it buys UVXY. If not, it looks at a secondary condition involving UUP (dollar index ETF) based on RSI(SPY,19). If that condition isn’t met, it then selects the two assets with the smallest max drawdown (risk-based selection) from a pool that includes bonds and gold proxies plus leveraged/defensive ETFs.
- Within each half, assets are weighted evenly. The two halves’ exposures are combined to form the final portfolio, rebalance daily.
- The overall goal is to limit drawdown while capturing upside from leveraged moves in tech/semiconductors and timely hedges via UVXY, with supplementary defensive ballast (bonds and gold).
- Important caveats: RSI and max-drawdown screens are historical/performance-based signals; leverage magnifies losses; past results depend on data quality and backtesting assumptions.
Out-of-sample edge: higher risk-adjusted returns and smaller drawdowns than the S&P 500. oos return ~44% vs ~16%; Sharpe ~1.52 vs 0.91; max drawdown ~13.7% vs 18.8%; Calmar ~3.22. Daily rebalance across UVXY hedges, leveraged tech, and bonds/gold.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 13, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Diversified etfs, leveraged/volatility exposure, momentum/rsi signals, risk-aware, drawdown control, tactical allocation, backtested
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 19 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AGG
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Stocks
CURE
Direxion Daily Healthcare Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
DGP
DB Gold Double Long ETN due February 15, 2038
Stocks
MINT
PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Active Exchange-Traded Fund
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
ROM
ProShares Ultra Technology
Stocks
RXL
ProShares Ultra Health Care
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks