D-Fence v2.0 (@K) 10|14|2007
Today’s Change (Oct 8, 2026)
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About
Rules-based portfolio that goes defensive (T‑bills, bonds, managed‑futures, defensive sectors) when markets weaken; otherwise holds SPY+QQQ, adding a small 2× S&P (SSO) boost after a strong month. Rebalanced daily.
Each day it looks for warning signs: if the S&P 500 or Nasdaq fall below recent average prices, or if high‑yield bonds (HYG) weaken, it shifts to a defensive mix: 20% T‑bills (BIL), 20% bond funds (BND/IEF/TLT/VCIT), 20% managed‑futures (DBMF), 40% defensive sectors (XLV/XLU/XLP). If no warnings, it holds SPY+QQQ; after a very strong month (S&P ~20‑day gain >6%), it adds a small 2× S&P slice (SSO). Rebalances daily.
Out-of-sample tested and risk-aware: Calmar 5.56 and max OOS drawdown 0.77% vs SPY 1.41%. With ~4.26% OOS return, it defends in downturns and still seeks upside with a small leverage tilt—stronger risk-adjusted growth than the S&P 500.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 15, 2026
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, trend-following, risk-on/risk-off, defensive sectors, bonds/cash, managed futures, leverage overlay
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 13 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
DBMF
iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF
Stocks
HYG
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
VCIT
Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF
Stocks