A market-timing strategy that owns U.S. stocks in good conditions, but shifts to cash, bonds, managed futures, and defensive sectors when warning signs appear.

Each day, the strategy asks: “Do markets look shaky?” It checks if the U.S. stock market, tech stocks, or lower-quality corporate bonds have fallen below their recent trend lines. If yes, it moves into defense: cash-like Treasury bills, bonds, managed futures, and steadier sectors like healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples. If no, it owns the broad U.S. stock market and tech stocks. If the market has surged recently, it adds some extra aggression through SSO, a fund that amplifies S&P 500 moves.

Out-of-sample, this strategy offers stronger risk-adjusted performance and far smaller drawdowns versus the S&P 500: Sharpe 6.09 vs 1.80; 19.68% annualized return vs 18.79%; max drawdown 0.77% vs 2.03%; Calmar ~25.7; beta ~0.05.