Cyclical Pareto 1.2 - LBT 3xRo/Ro | BWC, Codernaut
Today’s Change (Feb 23, 2026)
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About
A three-signal, risk-on/risk-off strategy that switches between growth-stock leaders and safer assets using simple checks on fear, bond strength, and inflation trends. Equal-weighted picks aim to ride short-term momentum while avoiding market stress.
Three mini-models run in parallel; each flips risk on/off with simple checks (RSI = a price‑speed gauge).
- Safety: if fear (VIXY) spikes or S&P/QQQ look overbought, park in T‑Bills (BIL); else if bonds beat T‑Bills, risk on.
- Bonds vs stocks: if Treasuries (IEF) outrun inverse S&P (SH), risk on.
- Inflation: if inflation‑protected Treasuries (TIP) trend up, risk on.
Risk on: buy recent winners in 1–2 growth sectors. Risk off: top commodity/bond ETFs and leaders in defensive sectors. Equal‑weight.
Out-of-sample, this 3-signal Ro/Ro strategy delivers ~32% annualized return vs ~16% for the S&P, with ~1.1% max drawdown vs ~2.1%, and Sharpe ~3.87 with beta ~0.24. Higher upside, lower risk vs the S&P.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.19 | 0.53 | 0.29 | 0.54 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91.07% | 13.94% | 1.75% | 5.97% | 0.85 | |
| 256.63% | 29.22% | -0.43% | 11.09% | 1.63 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$35,663.13Regulatory Fees
$284.03
Total Slippage
$1,786.58
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 15, 2026
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical sector rotation, momentum, risk-on/risk-off, multi-signal, equities, etfs, bonds, commodities, volatility guards
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 244 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AAPL
Apple Inc.
Stocks
ABBV
ABBVIE INC.
Stocks
ABNB
Airbnb, Inc. Class A Common Stock
Stocks
ABT
Abbott Laboratories
Stocks
ACN
Accenture PLC
Stocks
ADBE
Adobe Inc.
Stocks
ADP
Automatic Data Processing
Stocks
AEP
American Electric Power Company, Inc.
Stocks
AGG
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Stocks
AMAT
Applied Materials Inc
Stocks