Curts New SPY 5 day, Vol Inc by SPXL allocate with BIL.... and SPXL THIS IS A GO! 33.6, 25.8, 19.6, 10/4/2011
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A tactical SPY-based strategy using SPXL for upside, UVXY for volatility hedging, and BRK/B/SHV as ballast. Signals: SPY above its 7-day average favors equity tilt; extreme momentum on TQQQ (RSI > 79) tilts to UVXY. No fixed rebalancing; aims for full exposure with risk dampening via bonds and quality stock.
What you’re looking at is a three-part toolkit operating mostly in SPY space, with optional leverage and hedges:
- Core exposure: SPY (S&P 500) with occasional tilts to SPXL (3x SPY) when the market looks like it’s trending up. This is the main growth engine.
- Volatility hedge/tilt: UVXY (volatility futures) can be placed if a momentum signal on a related technology-leveraged ETF becomes extreme (RSI on TQQQ above the high threshold). This is meant to profit from or protect against sudden volatility spikes.
- Cash/bond ballast and quality equity: BRK/B (Berkshire Hathaway Class B) and SHV (short-term bonds) act as ballast to dampen risk, while SPY remains in the mix to retain market exposure.
Signals driving the shifts:
- Trend signal: Check if SPY’s current price is above its 7-day moving average. If yes, lean into SPY/SPXL (more equity upside).
- Momentum/volatility signal: Look at RSI (a momentum gauge) of TQQQ over a 10-day window. If it’s above 79, tilt toward UVXY to hedge against flips in volatility.
- If neither signal fires, maintain a conservative mix with BRK/B and SHV for stability.
Rebalance approach: The plan specifies a 0.2 corridor, but says rebalance = none, meaning changes aren’t triggered by a fixed schedule—only by the signals above when you do adjust allocations.
What you actually own when you invest:
- SPY: S&P 500 exposure (broad U.S. stock market).
- SPXL: 3x leveraged SPY exposure (higher risk/higher potential gains when trending up).
- UVXY: A volatility-focused ETF (higher risk, intended for volatility spikes).
- BRK/B: Berkshire Hathaway stock (quality, large-cap exposure).
- SHV: Short-term U.S. Treasuries (carshed cash-like safety).
Overall, it’s a tactical plan that tries to ride up in a rising market with leverage, guard against volatility shocks, and keep some ballast in bonds and blue-chip stock.
Out-of-sample, this strategy delivers stronger risk-adjusted results than the S&P 500: Calmar ~3.05 and max drawdown ~3.88% vs ~5.07% for SPY, with hedges and ballast that dampen risk while still capturing upside when signals align.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.27 | 0.45 | 0.09 | 0.29 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 669.43% | 15.2% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.93 | |
| 8,983.22% | 36.72% | -2.12% | -4.04% | 1.32 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$908,321.84Regulatory Fees
$5,924.22
Total Slippage
$41,275.17
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jul 19, 2025
Trading Setting
Threshold 20%
Type
Stocks
Category
Equities, leverage, volatility, trend-following, tactical asset allocation, short-term bonds