Curts New SPY 5 day, Vol Inc by SPXL allocate with BIL.... and SPXL THIS IS A GO! 33.6, 25.8, 19.6, 10/4/2011
Today’s Change (Mar 12, 2026)
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About
A simple SPY trend strategy with an overheat safety valve: stay in SPY while it’s trending up, but if tech looks extremely hot switch to UVXY for a potential volatility spike. If trend weakens, shift mostly to short‑term Treasuries with small SPY and Berkshire.
Daily check: Is SPY above its 7‑day average (EMA = a recent‑weighted average)? If yes, hold SPY—unless a “heat” gauge (RSI, 0–100) on TQQQ (a fast, leveraged tech fund) is very high (>79). Then switch to UVXY, a fund that tends to surge when markets panic. If SPY is below its average, go defensive: ~60% in SHV (short‑term Treasury bills), ~20% in SPY, ~20% in BRK.B (Berkshire Hathaway).
Out-of-sample: annualized return ~11.82% vs SPY ~22.56%, but max drawdown ~3.88% vs 5.07%, Calmar ~3.05 and Sharpe ~1.30. The strategy delivers far stronger downside protection and steadier risk-adjusted growth, not just raw upside.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.27 | 0.45 | 0.09 | 0.29 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 664.01% | 15.16% | -2.23% | -2.01% | 0.92 | |
| 8,965.08% | 36.74% | -2.11% | -4.32% | 1.32 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$906,508.45Regulatory Fees
$5,924.22
Total Slippage
$41,275.17
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jul 19, 2025
Trading Setting
Threshold 20%
Type
Stocks
Category
Us equities, trend following, volatility hedge, tactical asset allocation, risk-on/risk-off, etfs, short-term timing