Curts New SPY 5 day, Vol Inc by SPXL allocate with BIL.... and SPXL THIS IS A GO! 33.6, 25.8, 19.6, 10/4/2011
Today’s Change (Apr 20, 2026)
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About
A simple SPY trend strategy: in uptrends hold SPY, but if tech looks “too hot” switch briefly to UVXY; in downtrends shift mostly to short‑term Treasuries with small SPY and Berkshire exposure.
1) Check trend: Is SPY (S&P 500 fund) above its 7‑day EMA (a quick‑moving trend line)?
2) If yes: check “heat” using RSI(10) of TQQQ (a 3× tech fund). If RSI > 79 (very hot), buy UVXY (a fund that jumps if volatility spikes). Otherwise buy SPY.
3) If no: go defensive: ~60% SHV (T‑Bills), 20% SPY, 20% BRK/B (Berkshire).
Note: TQQQ is only a gauge; it’s not bought. No fixed rebalance.
Out-of-sample risk-adjusted edge: lower drawdowns (3.9% vs 5.1% for SPY), lower beta (~0.63), and solid Calmar (~3.05), with steadier volatility and meaningful downside protection, while still capturing upside in up markets.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.27 | 0.45 | 0.09 | 0.29 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 716.72% | 15.58% | 6.16% | 5.09% | 0.95 | |
| 9,422.56% | 36.91% | 4.84% | 2.27% | 1.33 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$952,256.31Regulatory Fees
$5,973.02
Total Slippage
$41,613.92
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jul 19, 2025
Trading Setting
Threshold 20%
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend-following, tactical allocation, volatility hedge, etf rotation, risk-on/risk-off