CQ | BTC Rally Rider - Minimal Noise
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A daily-rebalanced mix that first targets a BTC-focused bucket (crypto stocks and crypto ETFs) with a top-momentum pick receiving 30% of capital, gated by a BITO trend check. If BTC signals aren’t favorable, it falls back to RSI-based hedges and leveraged tech/sector plays to ride/hedge broad moves, using a broad set of crypto and traditional market proxies. High complexity, high risk, aims to ride Bitcoin rallies while using volatility and rotation signals for protection.
- Rebalance frequency: daily. It starts by looking back 90 days to form a BTC-focused bucket (HODL BTC) of Bitcoin-related assets (crypto miners, companies with Bitcoin exposure, and crypto ETFs).
- BTC bucket construction: assets include COIN, RIOT, MARA, MSTR, BITQ, BITS, BITO, BTF, BITF, and others listed. Within this bucket, the strategy selects the single top asset by short-term momentum (moving-average return with a 3-day lookback) and allocates 30% of capital to that asset.
- Trend confirmation gate for BTC: It checks BITO’s price signals using moving averages. If the exponential moving average price of BITO is above BITO’s longer moving-average price (a trend-confirmation signal), the BTC bucket is favored and the 30% allocation can be applied; otherwise, it proceeds to hedges and other bets in the “What More Do You Need?” bucket.
- What More Do You Need? (hedges/opportunistic bets): A nested set of conditions uses RSI on broad proxies (QQQ, SPY) and price signals to trigger additional positions. Examples include UVXY (volatility ETF) when QQQ’s RSI exceeds 80 (overbought), or when SPY’s RSI exceeds 80; further branches may tilt toward leveraged tech exposure (TECL, TQQQ) when RSI indicates oversold conditions (e.g., RSI < 31) or other macro filters are met.
- Diversification within hedges: The strategy also considers inverse or hedging exposures (SQQQ, TECS) and sector/commodity proxies (XLP, SCO, DBO, IEF, PSQ) to capture rotations and protect against downside or to ride volatility spikes.
- Weighting framework: The outer design uses a 100-part baseline (weight den: 100) with a 30/100 allocation to the BTC bucket when its signals align, leaving the remainder available for hedges and other bets.
- Objective: To participate in the Bitcoin rally via BTC-related assets while limiting drawdown via volatility hedges and rotation into complementary market signals when conditions indicate risk of deterioration. This is a multi-component, momentum-driven approach that blends crypto exposure with traditional market signals and leverage/ inverse instruments.
Daily-rebalanced BTC-forward strategy that aims to outperform the S&P 500 by riding Bitcoin rallies with adaptive hedging. Out-of-sample: ~116% annualized return vs ~21.8% for SPY, Sharpe ~1.21, Calmar ~1.42, with drawdowns controlled through rotations.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.44 | 3.28 | 0.21 | 0.46 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82.97% | 20.76% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 1.32 | |
| 13,167.51% | 360.13% | 27.45% | 32.17% | 1.92 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,326,750.55Regulatory Fees
$3,136.42
Total Slippage
$17,252.59
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Dec 21, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Crypto equities, bitcoin etfs, momentum, trend-following, hedging, daily rebalancing
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 23 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BITF
Bitfarms Ltd. Common Stock
Stocks
BITO
ProShares Bitcoin ETF
Stocks
BITQ
Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF
Stocks
BITS
Global X Blockchain & Bitcoin Strategy ETF
Stocks
BTF
Valkyrie ETF Trust II CoinShares Bitcoin and Ether ETF
Stocks
BULZ
MicroSectors FANG & Innovation 3x Leveraged ETN
Stocks
COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc. Class A Common Stock
Stocks
CONL
GraniteShares ETF Trust GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF
Stocks
DBO
Invesco DB Oil Fund
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks