COST + UNH or Not
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
A daily, risk-on/off sleeve: go to cash when markets look overheated or stressed; otherwise hold a steadier mix of Costco and UnitedHealth. In rare deep selloffs it may briefly buy a fast tech fund. Bond and stock signals guide each switch.
Daily, it switches between cash-like T‑Bills (BIL) and a risk‑balanced mix of Costco (COST) and UnitedHealth (UNH). It reads a “hot/cold” meter (RSI) on a fast Nasdaq fund (TQQQ = 3x QQQ): too hot or shaky → cash. Calm/uptrend → COST/UNH, sized by steadiness. In rare panics it may buy a fast tech fund (TECL = 3x tech) for bounces. Bond gauges (TMF=3x long Treasuries, BND, IEF=7‑10y, TLT=20y) and SPY confirm risk.
Out-of-sample annualized return ~49.6% vs SPY ~21%, Sharpe ~1.19, Calmar ~2.11. A daily risk-on/off sleeve (COST/UNH, cash in heat/stress, rare TECL bounces) seeks big upside with risk controls—though drawdowns can be ~23.5%.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.28 | 0.78 | 0.23 | 0.48 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 724.66% | 14.11% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.86 | |
| 31,188.25% | 43.24% | 13.82% | 4.47% | 1.42 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$3,128,824.97Regulatory Fees
$9,892.16
Total Slippage
$66,840.30
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 29, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical defensive, daily rebalance, risk-on/off, rsi & trend filters, inverse-vol weights, cost/unh core, cash (bil), rare tecl bounces
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
COST
Costco Wholesale Corp
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks