COST + UNH or Not
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A defensive 10% sleeve that usually splits between Costco and UnitedHealth, shifts to T‑Bills when markets flash stress, and only in rare panics buys a small 3× tech bounce. Decisions use simple heat/trend/stress checks on stocks and bonds.
Checks daily. Default: split between Costco (COST) and UnitedHealth (UNH), tilting to the steadier one. If the Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) is above its 25‑day average and long bonds (TMF) aren’t stressed, hold COST/UNH. If stocks look overheated or fall fast, move to T‑Bills (BIL). In rare panics, if tech is very oversold, buy a 3× tech fund (TECL) for a brief rebound. Uses simple signals: 0–100 heat (RSI), drop from peak (drawdown), short‑term returns, and bond‑vs‑stock strength (BND vs SPY; IEF vs TLT).
Defensive sleeve with big upside. Out-of-sample annualized return ~49.6% and Calmar ~2.11, Sharpe ~1.19. T-Bills in stress; COST/UNH core, occasional TECL. Strong risk-adjusted growth versus the S&P 500.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 29, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Defensive equity sleeve, tactical rotation, momentum and mean reversion, risk management, daily rebalanced
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
COST
Costco Wholesale Corp
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks