Convertible Securities ETF Momo as A Leading Risk Metric
Today’s Change (Oct 8, 2026)
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About
A daily tactical strategy using the Convertible Bonds ETF (CWB) as an early risk gauge. Weak CWB = defensive (gold, currency hedges, insurance) with oversold dip‑buys. Strong CWB = risk‑on, trading nat‑gas/oil volatility and tilting into growth or inflation hedges.
Each day it checks a risk gauge: the Convertible Bonds ETF (CWB). If its short‑term trend (EMA) is below the long‑term trend, it goes defensive: gold (GLD), currency hedges (YCS/EUO), insurance (KIE), and buys sectors only when their RSI (0–100; <30 = washed‑out) flags bargains. If the gauge is strong, it turns risk‑on: reads natural‑gas and oil volatility to go long/short (UNL/UNG/KOLD, USL/SCO), and uses bond trend (ZROZ vs TLT) to tilt into growth (QQQ/SMH) or stagflation hedges. Rebalanced daily; uses leveraged/inverse ETFs.
Out-of-sample edge: 23.9% annual return vs 19.1% for the S&P, higher risk-adjusted Sharpe (1.61 vs 1.13), smaller drawdowns (9.8% vs 18.8%), and lower beta. A diversified, regime-switching strategy that aims to protect capital while seeking growth.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 31, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical multi-asset, risk-on/risk-off, volatility-regime, commodities (nat gas/oil), convertibles signal (cwb), leveraged/inverse etfs, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 56 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BIS
ProShares UltraShort NASDAQ Biotechnology
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
CURE
Direxion Daily Healthcare Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
CWB
State Street SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF
Stocks
DBA
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
DUG
ProShares UltraShort Energy
Stocks
EEV
ProShares Trust UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets
Stocks
EUM
ProShares Trust Short MSCI Emerging Markets
Stocks