Commodities/Bonds - Weekly
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A weekly tactical rotation across commodities and bonds with a Not Boring Tuned risk-control layer that shifts between defensive and growth tilts. It uses momentum to pick two top performers and a base commodity exposure, then toggles risk posture with inverse-vol weighting on either defensive or leveraged growth bets.
- Every week, scan a basket of ETFs: GLD, DBA, DBO, URA, DBC, WOOD, TLT, GDX, URNM, XME.
- Pick the top 2 by 21-day momentum (cumulative return over the last 21 days) and allocate 66.6% to the first, 33.4% to the second.
- Maintain a base commodity exposure via DBC (33.4%) to ensure ongoing commodity tilt.
- Engage the Not Boring (Tuned) risk module to decide between Risk Off and Risk On regimes using momentum and volatility signals (e.g., QQQ performance and drawdown checks).
- Risk Off: overweight defensive assets (GLD, UUP, FAS, TMF, UVXY) with inverse-vol weighting to reduce risk from volatility.
- Risk On Core Risk Parity: overweight growth/momentum bets (TMF, FAS, TQQQ, SOXL) with inverse-vol weighting to balance risk contributions within this group.
- The final weights are applied to the listed ETFs and the portfolio is rebalanced weekly to reflect the current regime and momentum signals.
This weekly momentum strategy on commodities and bonds, with Not Boring risk controls, targets inflation hedges and growth. Out-of-sample Sharpe 1.89 vs 1.45, higher alpha, Calmar 2.79—stronger risk-adjusted upside than the S&P.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.32 | 1.83 | 0.54 | 0.73 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 125.6% | 14.08% | -2.02% | -1.16% | 0.75 | |
| 1,666.67% | 59.21% | 22.28% | 37.14% | 1.17 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$176,667.09Regulatory Fees
$197.48
Total Slippage
$1,178.48
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 16, 2023
Trading Setting
Weekly
Type
Stocks
Category
Commodities, bonds, risk-on/off, momentum rotation, weekly rebalancing, leverage etfs, volatility-based sizing
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 18 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
DBA
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
DBO
Invesco DB Oil Fund
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
GDX
VanEck Gold Miners ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks