Commodities/Bonds - Weekly
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
Weekly tactical strategy. If commodities trend up, own a basket of the strongest commodity/real‑asset funds plus broad commodities. Otherwise switch between a leveraged risk‑parity mix and defensive assets (gold, dollar, bonds, VIX) based on short‑term drops.
Weekly. Step 1: if broad commodities (DBC) are up over ~1 month, hold ~2/3 in the two best real‑asset funds (gold GLD, oil DBO, agri DBA, miners GDX/XME/URNM/URA, timber WOOD, or long Treasuries TLT) and ~1/3 in DBC.
Else use risk‑on/off: big short‑term drops tilt to gold, the US dollar (UUP), long Treasuries (TMF) and sometimes VIX (UVXY); otherwise run a “risk‑parity” mix of 3x Nasdaq (TQQQ), 3x semis (SOXL), 3x financials (FAS) and 3x long Treasuries (TMF), sized by recent volatility. It uses recent % change, worst 10‑day drops, and inverse‑vol sizing (safer assets get larger weights).
Out-of-sample edge: Sharpe 1.89 vs 1.45, Calmar 2.79, OOS return ~98% vs ~23%. Dynamic commodity tilt + risk-on/off engine targets higher risk-adjusted returns and bigger upside than the S&P 500.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 16, 2023
Trading Setting
Weekly
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, trend following, risk parity, risk-on/risk-off, leveraged etfs, commodities tilt, weekly rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 18 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
DBA
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
DBO
Invesco DB Oil Fund
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
GDX
VanEck Gold Miners ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks