Commodities & Bonds Class 10-21-23
Today’s Change (Apr 20, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A one‑ETF‑at‑a‑time, daily strategy that uses commodity and bond trends, volatility, and a fear gauge to rotate among commodities (DBC), Treasuries (TLT), U.S. stocks (SPY/SSO), energy stocks (XLE), or cash (BIL). Leverage only when markets are calm.
Daily it holds one ETF.
If commodities (DBC) are trending up: if short‑term moves are jumpy, own DBC. Otherwise check bonds: if long Treasuries (TLT) are trending and jumpy, own TLT; else pick the one with the milder recent drop (DBC vs SPY, or DBC vs SPY vs XLE).
If commodities aren’t trending: if fear spikes (VIXY RSI>75) go to cash (BIL); else own stocks—SPY when choppy, SSO (2x SPY) when calm.
Defs: moving avg=avg price; volatility=bumpiness; RSI=0–100 heat; drawdown=peak‑to‑trough drop.
Regime-driven rotation across commodities, Treasuries, equities, energy and cash. Out-of-sample: 12.6% annualized return, 21.5% max drawdown, Calmar 0.59, Sharpe 0.76. Diversifies and adds inflation hedging to the S&P 500 with clear risk control.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.35 | 0.59 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 625.82% | 13.91% | 6.16% | 5.09% | 0.85 | |
| 1,588.91% | 20.42% | -1.63% | 20.49% | 1.02 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$168,891.14Regulatory Fees
$696.13
Total Slippage
$4,291.75
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 21, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, trend-following, volatility-aware, regime switching, commodities, treasuries, equities, defensive, leveraged option
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 7 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
VIXY
ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
XLE
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks