Commodities & Bonds Class 10-21-23
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A one‑ETF‑at‑a‑time, daily strategy that uses commodity and bond trends, volatility, and a fear gauge to rotate among commodities (DBC), Treasuries (TLT), U.S. stocks (SPY/SSO), energy stocks (XLE), or cash (BIL). Leverage only when markets are calm.
Daily it holds one ETF.
If commodities (DBC) are trending up: if short‑term moves are jumpy, own DBC. Otherwise check bonds: if long Treasuries (TLT) are trending and jumpy, own TLT; else pick the one with the milder recent drop (DBC vs SPY, or DBC vs SPY vs XLE).
If commodities aren’t trending: if fear spikes (VIXY RSI>75) go to cash (BIL); else own stocks—SPY when choppy, SSO (2x SPY) when calm.
Defs: moving avg=avg price; volatility=bumpiness; RSI=0–100 heat; drawdown=peak‑to‑trough drop.
Regime-aware, daily rotation across commodities, Treasuries, equities and cash trims risk in stressed markets. OOS: beta ~0.75, 12.6% annualized return, 21.5% max drawdown, offering diversification and risk control versus SPY.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.11 | 0.71 | 0.36 | 0.6 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 583.71% | 13.55% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.83 | |
| 1,616.99% | 20.68% | 21.92% | 24.54% | 1.03 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$171,698.60Regulatory Fees
$695.97
Total Slippage
$4,291.77
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 21, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, trend-following, volatility-aware, regime switching, commodities, treasuries, equities, defensive, leveraged option
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 7 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
VIXY
ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
XLE
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks