Commodities & Bonds Class 10-21-23
Today’s Change (Mar 15, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Daily, it rotates into one ETF: commodities (DBC), long Treasuries (TLT), US stocks (SPY/SSO), energy stocks (XLE), or T‑Bills (BIL). It follows long‑term trends, reacts to short‑term choppiness, and uses a “fear” gauge (VIXY) to step aside in panics.
Each day:
- If commodities are in a long uptrend (DBC = broad commodities), buy DBC when short‑term swings are hot. Otherwise, if long Treasuries trend up and are jumpy (TLT), buy TLT; else pick the smallest recent drop from DBC/SPY (US stocks), or if bonds aren’t trending, from DBC/SPY/XLE (energy).
- If commodities aren’t trending up, check fear (VIXY). If very high, hold BIL (T‑Bills). If not, own SPY when jumpy, or SSO (2× SPY) when calm.
Usually 100% in one ETF; rebalanced daily.
Risk-aware, daily ETF-rotation with trend and fear-gauge protection. Lower beta (~0.75) and diversification away from pure SPY exposure, aiming for steadier risk-adjusted performance. Out-of-sample: 12.6% annualized return, Sharpe 0.76, Calmar 0.59.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.11 | 0.71 | 0.36 | 0.6 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 575.05% | 13.46% | -2.85% | -2.42% | 0.82 | |
| 1,614% | 20.68% | 20.23% | 22.62% | 1.03 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$171,400.10Regulatory Fees
$695.97
Total Slippage
$4,291.77
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 21, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, commodities trend-following, bonds, equities, volatility regime, leveraged etf, risk management, daily rebalancing
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 7 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
VIXY
ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
XLE
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks