Commander BND V4 | 4 Trade Days / Year | Garen Mod | Ribbon Bonds
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Quarterly, a bond‑vs‑T‑bill signal flips between “risk‑on” (leveraged growth funds) and “risk‑off” (defensive hedges). A Treasury trend check fine‑tunes the risk‑off mix. It ranks choices by recent trend and holds four funds equally.
Every quarter it asks: have broad bonds beaten 1–3mo T‑bills lately? If yes, it buys 4 fast‑moving growth funds (tech/semis/S&P/Nasdaq/long‑Treasuries) ranked by recent trend.
If no, it checks whether long Treasuries are rising. If weak (rates up), it holds defensive hedges + US dollar. If strong (rates down), it owns staples/healthcare/Treasuries/gold and may keep ~20% cash.
Out-of-sample, this regime-switching strategy aims ~44% annualized return vs ~22% for the S&P, with Calmar ~1.11 and positive oos alpha (~0.12). It offers higher upside through risk-on leverage and hedges, but larger drawdowns (~40% vs ~19%).
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 5, 2022
Trading Setting
Quarterly
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime switching, momentum ranking, quarterly rebalance, leveraged etfs, inverse/volatility hedges, bonds vs t‑bills
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 22 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
PST
ProShares Trust UltraShort Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
SDS
ProShares UltraShort S&P500
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
Stocks
TBT
ProShares Trust UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury
Stocks