A quarterly 4-ETF rotation that times the market. It uses a bond-based risk signal (BND vs BIL) to decide Risk-On vs Risk-Off, then uses momentum cues (RSI and returns) to pick four ETFs for the quarter. In Risk-On you get four leveraged equity bets; in Risk-Off you get defensive/hedged options (including US dollar exposure or gold and VIX plays) depending on whether rates are expected to rise or fall. The goal is to adapt exposure every quarter while keeping the lineup to four tickers.

- Step 1: Measure market risk with a bond comparison. If the broad bond market (BND) outperforms short-term Treasuries (BIL) over about two months, the system joins a Risk-On stance. If not, it moves to Risk-Off. - Step 2: If in Risk-Off, decide which flavor of risk-off: rising-rate or falling-rate regime. This uses momentum signals on long-duration Treasuries (TLT): a short-term momentum indicator versus a longer-horizon return signal helps classify the regime. - Step 3: Build a 4-ETF sleeve for the quarter from a defined pool of ETFs. Each sleeve is constructed using momentum screening: • Risk-On sleeve (equities with leverage): pick 4 from SOXL, TECL, TQQQ, UPRO, FAS, TMF, ranking by RSI over a long window, and picking the 4 weakest-overbought (lowest RSI) but trending assets. Weights are equal among the 4. • Risk-Off, Rising Rates: select 3 assets from a pool (PST, TBT, XLP, XLE, SDS, QID, VIXY, VIXM, BTAL, USDU) using RSI over a short window; total of 3 assets plus a USD exposure (USDU) weighted to 60/100 for the 3, with USDU at 40/100. • Risk-Off, Falling Rates: select 4 assets from XLP, XLV, SHY, UGL, TLT using a momentum/return ranking (80/100 total weight across the 4). - Step 4: Apply the chosen weights to create a single, four-ETF portfolio for the quarter. - Step 5: At the next quarter, repeat the process with updated data. What this means for a layperson: Depending on the signal of the bond market, you either tilt toward a basket of leveraged equity bets (more aggressive exposure to tech, semis, banks) or tilt toward defensive assets and hedges (staples, healthcare, short-duration Treasuries, gold proxies, volatility exposure). The exact four ETFs change every quarter based on momentum signals, not on fundamentals.

Quarterly, regime-aware 4-ETF rotation targets higher upside than the S&P. OOS return ~44% vs ~22% for SPY, with positive alpha and Calmar ~1.1. Accept higher drawdowns (~40%) for momentum-driven gains and hedges across regimes.