Commander BND V4 | 4 Trade Days / Year | Garen Mod | Ribbon Bonds
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A quarterly, bond‑guided switch. If bonds beat T‑bills, go “risk on” with 4 leveraged growth ETFs that look most oversold. If not, go “risk off” into mixes of inverse Treasuries/equities, USD, staples, healthcare, gold, and long Treasuries.
Every quarter it asks: have broad bonds (BND) beaten T‑bills (BIL) over the past 2 months?
- Yes → Risk ON: buy 4 of 6 aggressive, leveraged funds (tech/semis/Nasdaq/S&P/financials/long‑Treasuries) that look most “oversold.”
- No → Risk OFF: check long‑Treasury trend.
• If rates look to be rising: split 60% across the 3 most “oversold” hedges (inverse Treasuries/equities, staples, energy, VIX, anti‑beta) and 40% in long‑USD (USDU).
• If rates look to be falling: put 80% into 4 laggards among Treasuries, gold, staples, and healthcare (rest sits in cash).
Out-of-sample edge: ~44% annualized return vs ~22% for the S&P, driven by a bond-signal regime switch and quarterly hedges. Strong risk-adjusted profile (Calmar ~1.11) with diversified hedges; note drawdowns can be larger than the S&P.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 5, 2022
Trading Setting
Quarterly
Type
Stocks
Category
Risk-on/risk-off, quarterly, leveraged etfs, bond signal, mean reversion, defensive hedges, volatility hedge, sector rotation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 22 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
PST
ProShares Trust UltraShort Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
SDS
ProShares UltraShort S&P500
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TBT
ProShares Trust UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury
Stocks