Quarterly, it asks if bonds are beating cash to set Risk ON/OFF. Then it buys contrarian picks: Risk ON buys the most beaten‑down leveraged growth/stock or long‑bond funds; Risk OFF shifts to the dollar, hedges, or defensives (and cash) based on rate direction.

Rebalanced quarterly. 1) Risk test: If total US bonds (BND) beat T‑bills (BIL) over ~60 days → Risk ON; else Risk OFF. Risk ON: Equally buy 4 aggressive funds (3x tech/semis/US stocks and 3x long‑Treasuries) that look most “washed‑out” by a 1‑year RSI. Risk OFF: Check long Treasuries (TLT) vs T‑bills over ~20 days. If TLT is weak (rates rising): 40% long US dollar; 60% in 3 defensive/short/volatility funds with the weakest 10‑day RSI. If TLT is firm (rates falling): 80% in 4 of staples, health care, short‑term bonds, gold, or long Treasuries that lagged over 3 months; 20% cash.

Out-of-sample return 45.7% vs SPY 22%; oos Sharpe ~1.10 and Calmar ~0.96—strong upside with solid risk-adjusted performance. Regime-driven, contrarian picks aim to capture mean-reversion; note larger drawdowns (~47%) in stressed markets.