Commander BND V2 | 4 Trade Days / Year | Garen Mod
Today’s Change (Aug 23, 2026)
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About
Quarterly, it asks if bonds are beating cash to set Risk ON/OFF. Then it buys contrarian picks: Risk ON buys the most beaten‑down leveraged growth/stock or long‑bond funds; Risk OFF shifts to the dollar, hedges, or defensives (and cash) based on rate direction.
Rebalanced quarterly.
1) Risk test: If total US bonds (BND) beat T‑bills (BIL) over ~60 days → Risk ON; else Risk OFF.
Risk ON: Equally buy 4 aggressive funds (3x tech/semis/US stocks and 3x long‑Treasuries) that look most “washed‑out” by a 1‑year RSI.
Risk OFF: Check long Treasuries (TLT) vs T‑bills over ~20 days. If TLT is weak (rates rising): 40% long US dollar; 60% in 3 defensive/short/volatility funds with the weakest 10‑day RSI. If TLT is firm (rates falling): 80% in 4 of staples, health care, short‑term bonds, gold, or long Treasuries that lagged over 3 months; 20% cash.
Out-of-sample edge: 38.95% annualized return vs SPY's 21.68%, driven by macro regime rotation and contrarian, leveraged picks. Higher upside potential, but expect larger drawdowns and higher volatility.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 5, 2022
Trading Setting
Quarterly
Type
Stocks
Category
Risk-on/off, macro regime, bond-vs-cash signal, contrarian rsi, leveraged etfs, quarterly rebalance, defensive hedges, dollar tilt
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 22 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
PST
ProShares Trust UltraShort Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
SDS
ProShares UltraShort S&P500
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TBT
ProShares Trust UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury
Stocks