Commander BND V1 | 4 Trade Days / Year | Garen Mod
Today’s Change (Mar 6, 2026)
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About
A quarterly “risk switch” driven by bond vs T‑bill trends. In good conditions it buys 4 aggressive 3× growth/bond funds; in bad conditions it rotates into defensive, inverse, volatility and dollar plays, buying recent losers (low RSI) for rebounds. High risk.
Trades 4×/yr.
1) Risk test: if broad bonds (BND) beat 1–3mo T‑bills (BIL) over ~60 days → Risk ON; else Risk OFF. If OFF, check long Treasuries (TLT) vs T‑bills over ~20 days to read rates (rising if TLT worse).
2) Then buy recent losers (low RSI—a 0–100 recent‑move score; low = recently fell) to bet on a bounce.
Risk ON: 4 aggressive 3× stock/tech/long‑Treasury funds.
Risk OFF, rising rates: 60% in 3 defensive/short/volatility funds + 40% in a stronger‑USD fund.
Risk OFF, falling rates: 80% in 4 of staples/healthcare/Treasuries/2× gold; 20% cash.
Out-of-sample results: ~44% annualized return vs ~22% for the S&P, enabled by regime-driven risk-on/off shifts and mean-reversion picks. Higher upside, but expect larger drawdowns (~51%) than the S&P.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.54 | 0.56 | 0.06 | 0.24 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 362.88% | 13.4% | 0.54% | -0.34% | 0.82 | |
| 67,724.9% | 70.77% | 1.94% | 4.48% | 1.51 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$6,782,490.43Regulatory Fees
$1,809.48
Total Slippage
$11,925.88
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 5, 2022
Trading Setting
Quarterly
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, trend filter, mean-reversion, leveraged/inverse etfs, volatility hedges, defensive rotation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 22 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
PST
ProShares Trust UltraShort Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
SDS
ProShares UltraShort S&P500
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
Stocks
TBT
ProShares Trust UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury
Stocks