Commander BND V1 | 4 Trade Days / Year | Garen Mod
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
Quarterly regime switch: bonds vs T‑bills picks Risk‑On or Risk‑Off. Then it buys the most “beaten‑up” choices from preset ETFs—growth/leveraged in Risk‑On; hedges, USD, or defensives (plus some cash) in Risk‑Off. Mean‑reversion focus.
Each quarter it makes two checks.
1) Bonds vs cash: If the total US bond market (BND) beat 1–3m T‑bills (BIL) over ~60 days, go Risk‑On: buy 4 of 6 growth funds (leveraged tech/semis/Nasdaq/S&P/financials and long Treasuries TMF) with the lowest 10‑day RSI (a short‑term “how beaten‑up” score).
2) Otherwise Risk‑Off, then rates: If long Treasuries (TLT) lagged T‑bills over ~20 days (rising rates), hold 3 oversold hedges (inverse Treasuries, defensive stocks, inverse stock funds, VIX, market‑neutral) plus 40% long USD (USDU). If not (falling rates), hold 4 oversold defensives (staples, healthcare, Treasuries, short Treasuries, gold) and keep ~20% cash.
Out-of-sample annualized return ~44% vs ~22% for the S&P; risk managed by quarterly regime-switching and contrarian hedges with USD exposure. Calmar ~0.87; expect higher drawdowns (~51%) in downturns.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 5, 2022
Trading Setting
Quarterly
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime switching, mean reversion, quarterly, leveraged/inverse etfs, bonds vs t‑bills, risk‑on/risk‑off, usd, volatility
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 22 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
PST
ProShares Trust UltraShort Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
SDS
ProShares UltraShort S&P500
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TBT
ProShares Trust UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury
Stocks