Commander BND V1 | 4 Trade Days / Year | Garen Mod
Today’s Change (Aug 7, 2026)
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About
Quarterly regime switch: bonds vs T‑bills picks Risk‑On or Risk‑Off. Then it buys the most “beaten‑up” choices from preset ETFs—growth/leveraged in Risk‑On; hedges, USD, or defensives (plus some cash) in Risk‑Off. Mean‑reversion focus.
Each quarter it makes two checks.
1) Bonds vs cash: If the total US bond market (BND) beat 1–3m T‑bills (BIL) over ~60 days, go Risk‑On: buy 4 of 6 growth funds (leveraged tech/semis/Nasdaq/S&P/financials and long Treasuries TMF) with the lowest 10‑day RSI (a short‑term “how beaten‑up” score).
2) Otherwise Risk‑Off, then rates: If long Treasuries (TLT) lagged T‑bills over ~20 days (rising rates), hold 3 oversold hedges (inverse Treasuries, defensive stocks, inverse stock funds, VIX, market‑neutral) plus 40% long USD (USDU). If not (falling rates), hold 4 oversold defensives (staples, healthcare, Treasuries, short Treasuries, gold) and keep ~20% cash.
Out-of-sample shows about 38% annual return vs 22% for the S&P, thanks to quarterly risk-on/off shifts, mean-reversion bets, and hedges (USD, defensives, cash). Higher upside and diversification, but with bigger drawdowns and higher market sensitivity.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.52 | 0.52 | 0.05 | 0.22 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 424.94% | 14.06% | 2.3% | 5% | 0.85 | |
| 65,530.38% | 67.31% | 0.35% | -0.69% | 1.47 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$6,563,037.51Regulatory Fees
$1,555.76
Total Slippage
$13,347.31
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 5, 2022
Trading Setting
Quarterly
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime switching, mean reversion, quarterly, leveraged/inverse etfs, bonds vs t‑bills, risk‑on/risk‑off, usd, volatility
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 22 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
PST
ProShares Trust UltraShort Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
SDS
ProShares UltraShort S&P500
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TBT
ProShares Trust UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury
Stocks