Commander BND Nest | 4 Trade Days / Year | Garen Mod
Today’s Change (Apr 20, 2026)
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About
A quarterly, rules-based mix. If bonds beat cash, it buys 4 leveraged growth/tech/bond ETFs with the best recent strength. If not, it shifts to defensive shorts, staples, energy, USD, or to bonds/gold when rates fall. High risk; 4 trades/yr.
Each quarter it checks if bonds beat cash: 60‑day BND (broad bonds) vs BIL (T‑bills). If BND > BIL → Risk ON; else Risk OFF.
Risk ON: buy 4 of SOXL/TECL/TQQQ/UPRO/FAS/TMF with the strongest recent price strength (RSI = 0–100 gauge of up vs down days).
Risk OFF: use TLT’s trend to tell rising vs falling rates. Rising: 60% in 3 of PST/TBT/SDS/QID/XLP/XLE/VIXY/VIXM/BTAL + 40% USDU. Falling: 80% in 4 of XLP/XLV/SHY/UGL/TLT. Rebalance quarterly.
Out-of-sample shows about 45.5% annualized return vs SPY’s about 22%, with a Calmar around 1—indicating solid risk-adjusted upside. Note higher drawdown (~46% vs ~19%) and volatility; best for risk-tolerant investors seeking big upside in favorable regimes.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 5, 2022
Trading Setting
Quarterly
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime switching, momentum (rsi), leveraged/inverse etfs, tactical allocation, multi-asset defensives, quarterly rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 22 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
PST
ProShares Trust UltraShort Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
SDS
ProShares UltraShort S&P500
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TBT
ProShares Trust UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury
Stocks