ChatGPT Beats SPY
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
—
A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily-rebalanced, rule-based strategy that mixes growth bets, hedges, and bonds to try to beat SPY. It dynamically switches among leveraged tech exposure, volatility hedges, low-volatility stocks, and bonds based on momentum, volatility, and trend signals. It uses a structured decision tree to decide which regime is in and then allocates weights accordingly (sometimes heavily to a single levered ETF, sometimes spreading across bonds and cash), with the aim of capturing upside while dampening risk during turmoil.
- Every trading day, the system evaluates market conditions using a mix of simple signals (momentum, volatility, and price trends). If volatility is very high or signals warn of a downturn, it tilts toward hedges and safer assets (like short-term Treasuries or cash-like instruments) or even volatility/inverse ETFs to profit from rising volatility. If signals are favorable, it tilts toward growth-oriented, higher-risk assets (including levered exposure to tech/nasdaq like TQQQ). - The asset universe includes a blend of growth-oriented ETFs (TQQQ, SQQQ, UVXY as hedges), broad-market exposure (SPY, QQQ), low-volatility equity (SPLV), and various fixed-income instruments (SHY, BIL, AGG, BND, IEF, TLT) to shape a balanced risk profile. - Weights are assigned within each regime, often using a cash-equal framework (distributing a fixed cash allocation evenly across chosen assets) or precise weights (e.g., 90% to one asset and 10% to another) depending on the signal. - Signals used to decide regime and weights include: RSI (to check if a price series is overbought/oversold), cumulative return over recent days (to gauge short-term momentum or mean-reversion), max drawdown (to avoid buying into a worsening downside), moving-average comparisons (to confirm price trends), and cross-asset comparisons (bond versus stock strength). - The rollout is daily, so positions can shift day by day as signals change. - The goal is to outperform SPY over time by being in growth assets when conditions are favorable and quickly shifting to hedges or bonds when risk rises, while using a disciplined, rule-based framework to avoid impulsive bets. - Important caution: levered and inverse ETFs can erode capital if held during sideways or choppy markets; this strategy explicitly uses them as part of a broader risk-management framework, not as a simple long-only approach.
Key edge: out-of-sample annualized return ~35.8% vs SPY's 22.6%, via dynamic growth hedges and regime switching. Higher volatility, but aims to capture big upside while reducing risk in downturns. Best for growth-oriented, risk-tolerant investors.
Loading backtest data...
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 18, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Dynamic-allocation, multi-asset, levered-etfs, volatility-regime, risk-management
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 15 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AGG
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Stocks
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXS
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
SPLV
Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks