Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. TLT | 3x
Today’s Change (Oct 22, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily strategy that usually hides in long-term Treasury bonds, but shifts part or all of the portfolio into a 3x S&P 500 fund when stock-market volatility is low and stocks look temporarily weak.
This strategy splits money into 15 mini-strategies.
Each day, each one first checks whether the US stock market has been calm or jumpy lately. If markets are too jumpy, it hides in long-term US government bonds (TLT). If markets are calm, it compares recent stock-market strength (SPY) with very short-term Treasury bonds (SHY). If stocks look weaker, it buys UPRO, a fund that aims for about 3x the S&P 500’s daily move; otherwise it stays in TLT.
Out-of-sample, this strategy targets ~29% annualized return with ~1.04 Sharpe, beating the S&P’s ~21%. It uses levered equities and long bonds to capture upside and manage risk—note drawdowns can reach ~38% in stress.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.21 | 0.8 | 0.27 | 0.52 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,039.41% | 15.11% | -0.05% | 3.57% | 0.91 | |
| 17,038.3% | 34.64% | -0.15% | 3.96% | 1.27 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,713,829.67Regulatory Fees
$3,684.24
Total Slippage
$29,376.67
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 3, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, risk-on/risk-off, leveraged equity, treasury bonds, ensemble, daily rebalance