Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. TLT | 3x
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A cautious, daily‑rebalanced mix that hides in long Treasuries when markets are jumpy, and only buys 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) in calm periods when stocks look short‑term weak vs cash—aiming to catch rebounds while avoiding storms.
It splits your money into 15 equal “sleeves.” Each day, per sleeve: 1) Is the S&P 500 (SPY) calm? If its recent daily swings (14–42 days) are below 1.0%, 1.5%, or 2.0%, go to step 2; if not, hold long U.S. Treasuries (TLT). 2) Compare a short‑term strength score (RSI: lower = more “oversold”) for SPY vs SHY (short‑term Treasuries). If SPY looks weaker, buy 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) to play a rebound; otherwise stay in TLT. All sleeves are combined.
Out-of-sample: ~39.8% annualized return vs SPY ~22%, via volatility hedges (TLT) and selective 3x long exposure during calm rebounds. Drawdowns can reach ~38%, but the upside and diversification exceed the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.22 | 0.79 | 0.26 | 0.51 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 901.95% | 14.84% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.89 | |
| 16,337.54% | 35.84% | -1.61% | -1.36% | 1.3 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,643,753.66Regulatory Fees
$3,983.06
Total Slippage
$25,081.06
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 3, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, volatility filter, contrarian mean reversion, leveraged equity (upro), long treasuries (tlt), daily rebalance