Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. TLT | 3x
Today’s Change (Jun 22, 2026)
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About
A cautious switcher between 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) and long Treasuries (TLT). It only buys 3× stocks when recent volatility is low and stocks aren’t “hot”; otherwise it sits in TLT. Uses 15 short lookbacks, averages their votes, and rebalances daily since 2009.
This strategy “surfs” between two funds every day: UPRO (a fund that aims to move about 3× as much as the S&P 500) and TLT (long‑term U.S. Treasury bonds). It runs 15 quick checks using recent 14–42 days of data:
- If the stock market (SPY) has been calm (small daily swings), AND its short‑term “heat score” (RSI: a 0–100 measure of recent ups vs downs) looks cooler than a cash‑like bond fund (SHY), that check buys UPRO.
- Otherwise it holds TLT.
The portfolio averages all 15 votes. More “UPRO votes” means more UPRO; jumpy or overheated markets push it into TLT.
Out-of-sample edge: ~30.4% annualized vs SPY ~22.1%, using volatility gates and RSI signals to tilt to 3x equities in calm markets and Treasuries in turbulence. Expect higher drawdowns, but potential for stronger upside.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.21 | 0.8 | 0.27 | 0.52 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 997.82% | 15.18% | 1.36% | 13.5% | 0.91 | |
| 15,883.04% | 34.89% | 5.62% | 8.5% | 1.27 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,598,303.65Regulatory Fees
$3,207.56
Total Slippage
$25,932.32
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 3, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, stocks vs bonds, leveraged etfs, volatility filter, rsi momentum, daily rebalance