Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. TLT | 2x
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Daily, it splits across 15 checks and switches between leveraged S&P 500 (SSO/UPRO) and long Treasuries (TLT). It goes risk‑on only when markets are calm and stocks look briefly weak vs cash; otherwise it parks in TLT.
It splits money across 15 tiny rules. Each day, each rule asks: has the S&P 500 been calm (low recent volatility)? If yes and stocks look short‑term weak vs cash (RSI—a score of recent up vs down days—is lower than for SHY), it buys a leveraged S&P 500 fund (mostly SSO; one slice uses UPRO). Otherwise it holds long‑term Treasuries (TLT). SPY=S&P 500, SHY=1–3y Treasuries, SSO/UPRO=2x/3x S&P 500, TLT=20+y Treasuries.
Out-of-sample annualized return: 27.4% vs S&P ~22.2%. A diversified 15-slice ensemble activates leverage only in calm dips, aiming for higher long-run growth with solid risk-adjusted profile (Calmar ~0.98), despite larger drawdowns.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.17 | 0.48 | 0.18 | 0.42 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 880.97% | 14.66% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.88 | |
| 3,980.29% | 24.88% | -4.15% | -0.87% | 1.23 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$408,029.03Regulatory Fees
$1,597.56
Total Slippage
$9,196.26
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 3, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, leveraged etfs, s&p 500 vs treasuries, volatility filter, rsi mean‑reversion, daily rebalance