Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. TLT | 2x
Today’s Change (Mar 6, 2026)
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About
Daily, it “surfs” between 2x S&P 500 and long Treasuries. It buys 2x stocks only when markets are calm and stocks look short‑term oversold vs short‑term Treasuries; otherwise it sits in TLT. 15 lookbacks smooth the exposure.
Each day, 15 simple checks vote between stocks and long bonds.
- SPY = S&P 500. TLT = long-term US Treasury bonds. SHY = short‑term Treasuries. SSO/UPRO = 2x/3x versions of SPY.
- First: is SPY’s recent “bumpiness” (volatility) low? If no, hold TLT.
- If yes: is SPY’s RSI (a 0–100 “recent ups vs downs” score) lower than SHY’s (i.e., stocks look more beaten‑up)? If yes, buy 2x SPY (rarely 3x). Else, hold TLT.
The portfolio averages all votes.
Out-of-sample, 27.44% annualized return vs SPY’s 22.17%, with Calmar 0.98 and Sharpe 1.26. Gains come from smart dips into 2x equities amid calm markets, with defensive Treasuries. Note: drawdowns can be larger (≈28% vs SPY ≈19%).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.17 | 0.48 | 0.18 | 0.42 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 896.36% | 14.79% | 0.54% | -0.34% | 0.89 | |
| 4,126.52% | 25.19% | 0.62% | -1.95% | 1.24 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$422,652.18Regulatory Fees
$1,597.39
Total Slippage
$9,195.91
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 3, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, volatility filter, mean reversion, leveraged etfs, s&p 500 vs treasuries, daily rebalance