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Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY & TLT | 3x
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here

About

A daily-rebalanced, momentum- and volatility-driven regime switch between 3x levered S&P 500 (UPRO) and Treasury ETFs (SHY/TLT), using RSI SPY vs SHY and SPY return volatility across multiple lookback windows to decide where to invest.
NutHow it works
- The strategy runs every trading day and picks one primary holding. It alternates between ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) and treasury ETFs (SHY or TLT). - Signals rely on two pieces: 1) Momentum check: compare RSI (a momentum measure) of SPY vs. SHY over a window (14, 21, 28, 35, or 42 days). If RSI(SPY) < RSI(SHY) for that window, the system leans into UPRO; otherwise it leans into bonds (SHY or, if volatility is high, TLT). 2) Volatility gate: compute the standard deviation of SPY returns over the same window. Depending on the regime (1%, 1.5%, or 2% stdev), this threshold helps decide whether to stay in leveraged stocks or shift to bonds. - The lookback window (14d through 42d) and the volatility regime are evaluated in layers, effectively selecting the regime that passes the checks for that day. - Weighting: within the chosen asset, the allocation is effectively 100% to that asset (the code shows full-weight on the selected position). - Rebalance: every trading day. - In practice, the strategy uses SPY as the market proxy and moves between UPRO (bullish, levered stock exposure) and bond ETFs SHY (short-term) or TLT (long-term) to manage risk, aiming to ride uptrends and reduce risk in tougher markets.
CheckmarkValue prop
Out-of-sample results show higher risk-adjusted upside vs the S&P 500: annualized return ~41.8%, Sharpe ~1.41, Calmar ~1.09. Daily regime-switching between UPRO and Treasuries aims to ride rallies and dampen risk in turbulence.

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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 3, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged equity, momentum timing, regime switching, volatility gating, daily rebalancing, spy proxy
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 4 assets in total
Ticker
Type
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks

FAQ

A Composer symphony is an automated trading strategy that executes trades based on parameters of your choice. Some symphonies are similar to holding one ETF in normal conditions and rotating to a different ETF when market conditions shift, for example a 5% drop in the S&P 500, while others use complex rules with dozens of triggers. However, complex doesn’t always mean better. A simple, well-structured symphony can be just as effective as an intricate one. Learn more about how symphonies work here.

The symphony is currently performing the same as yesterday today. Performance updates in real time during market hours.

The symphony is currently allocated toUPRO. Holdings automatically adjust as market conditions change based on the strategy's rules.

Year-to-date, the symphony has returned 33.22%. You can adjust the performance chart above to view returns across different time horizons.

The maximum drawdown for the symphony is 38.22%. The maximum drawdown measures the largest peak-to-trough decline. It's an important metric to evaluate risk and the strategy's behavior during market stress.

To invest in the symphony, simply click the Invest button on this page. You'll need to open an account with Composer if you don't have one yet, then you can start investing. Composer will automatically execute the trades for you based on the strategy's rules. Composer also supports trading individual stocks, ETFs, and options.