Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY & TLT | 3x
Today’s Change (Apr 20, 2026)
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About
Daily, cautious switcher among UPRO (3x S&P 500), SHY (1-3yr Treasuries), and TLT (20+yr Treasuries). High stock volatility -> TLT. In calm periods, buy UPRO when stocks look cold vs SHY; otherwise hold SHY. Built as 15 equal slices.
What it owns: UPRO (3x S&P 500), SHY (1-3yr US Treasuries), TLT (20+yr US Treasuries). It reads SPY (an S&P 500 tracker) to make decisions and rebalances daily.
1) Volatility gate: If recent stock moves are bumpy (> about 1–2% per day), that slice goes to TLT.
2) If calm: Use RSI (a hot/cold meter of recent gains vs losses). If stocks look colder than SHY, buy UPRO to catch a rebound; otherwise sit in SHY.
It runs 15 equal slices (5 time windows x 3 vol cutoffs).
Out-of-sample, this strategy offers higher upside with similar risk-adjusted strength vs the S&P 500: oos return 41.8% vs 22.2%, Sharpe 1.406 vs 1.401, Calmar ~1.093. Expect larger drawdowns (~38% vs ~19%), but stronger long-run growth.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.18 | 0.84 | 0.34 | 0.59 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 941.26% | 14.98% | 6.16% | 5.09% | 0.9 | |
| 10,434.02% | 31.98% | 2.04% | -3.27% | 1.25 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,053,401.67Regulatory Fees
$2,822.03
Total Slippage
$17,573.08
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 3, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, risk-on/risk-off, leveraged s&p 500, treasuries, volatility filter, mean reversion, daily rebalance, ensemble