Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY & TLT | 3x
Today’s Change (Sep 21, 2026)
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About
Daily, cautious switcher among UPRO (3x S&P 500), SHY (1-3yr Treasuries), and TLT (20+yr Treasuries). High stock volatility -> TLT. In calm periods, buy UPRO when stocks look cold vs SHY; otherwise hold SHY. Built as 15 equal slices.
What it owns: UPRO (3x S&P 500), SHY (1-3yr US Treasuries), TLT (20+yr US Treasuries). It reads SPY (an S&P 500 tracker) to make decisions and rebalances daily.
1) Volatility gate: If recent stock moves are bumpy (> about 1–2% per day), that slice goes to TLT.
2) If calm: Use RSI (a hot/cold meter of recent gains vs losses). If stocks look colder than SHY, buy UPRO to catch a rebound; otherwise sit in SHY.
It runs 15 equal slices (5 time windows x 3 vol cutoffs).
Out-of-sample edge: ~33% annualized return vs SPY’s ~21%, with risk management via a volatility gate shifting to Treasuries in turmoil and selective UPRO exposure in calm markets. Higher upside, but larger drawdowns (~38% vs ~19%).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.18 | 0.84 | 0.34 | 0.59 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,022.61% | 15.09% | -0.5% | 2.26% | 0.91 | |
| 11,780.57% | 32.01% | -0.13% | 11.12% | 1.26 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,188,057.02Regulatory Fees
$2,557.78
Total Slippage
$19,976.36
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 3, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, risk-on/risk-off, leveraged s&p 500, treasuries, volatility filter, mean reversion, daily rebalance, ensemble