Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY & TLT | 2x
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Daily, it cautiously rotates among 2x S&P 500 (SSO), short‑term Treasuries (SHY), and long‑term Treasuries (TLT). It buys 2x stocks only when markets are calm and stocks look oversold vs bonds; otherwise it hides in SHY or TLT. Uses 15 lookback tests.
Each day it chooses among: SSO (2x S&P 500), SHY (short‑term Treasuries), TLT (long‑term Treasuries). First it checks if the S&P 500’s recent moves are calm across several windows. If not (jumpy), hold TLT. If calm, it compares a simple up‑vs‑down score (RSI: lower = more oversold) for SPY vs SHY. If SPY looks more oversold, buy SSO; otherwise sit in SHY. It blends 15 lookbacks to smooth timing.
Out-of-sample edge: ~28.3% annual return vs ~22.2% S&P; Sharpe ~1.43 vs ~1.40; beta ~0.97; Calmar ~1.02. In calm markets it uses 2x SSO; in volatility it hedges with Treasuries—stronger risk-adjusted growth.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.14 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.44 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 670.85% | 10.92% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.63 | |
| 2,737.95% | 18.51% | -4% | -0.36% | 1.05 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$283,795.04Regulatory Fees
$1,223.77
Total Slippage
$6,828.58
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 3, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, volatility filter, contrarian rsi, leveraged equity, treasuries, ensemble, daily rebalance