Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY | 3x | TQQQ with Yes Pop | shared
Today’s Change (Apr 19, 2026)
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About
A cautious, rules‑based blend: lean into tech (toned‑down 3× via TQQQ) when markets are calm and signals are supportive; shift to T‑bills or Treasury trades when risk rises. Adds short‑term “pop” trades on tech dips/overheats to help reduce drawdowns.
It blends two rule-sets 50/50. In calm markets (low S&P volatility), it favors tech via TQQQ (3× NASDAQ‑100), sized down to ~2× by pairing 66% TQQQ with 34% BIL (T‑bills). If risk rises, it moves to BIL or Treasury funds (TYD long, TYO short, TMF long). It decides using simple gauges: market choppiness (volatility), stocks vs safety (SPY vs SHY), and tech’s “heat” (XLK’s RSI: low=dip, high=overheated). The second half buys tech on dips, shorts when too hot, or parks in Treasuries.
Out-of-sample return: 22.89% vs 20.38% for the S&P. A rules-based risk-on/risk-off strategy mixing a tech tilt with Treasuries. Aims for higher upside in calm markets with hedges to limit losses; note drawdowns can rise in extreme stress.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.28 | 1.11 | 0.51 | 0.71 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 777.8% | 14.4% | 6.16% | 5.09% | 0.87 | |
| 72,722.05% | 50.39% | 7.78% | 5.65% | 1.66 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$7,282,205.48Regulatory Fees
$16,542.67
Total Slippage
$97,375.57
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 4, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, volatility targeting, momentum/rsi timing, leveraged etfs, tech tilt, treasury hedges
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 13 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
SH
ProShares Short S&P500
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
TYD
Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks