Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY | 3x | TQQQ
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A cautious, contrarian switch between 3x tech (TQQQ) and cash‑like Treasuries (USFR). It only buys TQQQ when markets are calm and bonds have recently outpaced stocks; otherwise it parks in USFR. Fifteen lookbacks vote and are equally weighted.
What it owns: TQQQ (aims for 3x the Nasdaq‑100’s daily move) or USFR (cash‑like Treasuries). SPY = S&P 500; SHY = short‑term Treasuries.
It builds 15 small “voters.” Each asks: 1) Is the stock market calm (SPY’s recent daily swing under ~1–2%)? 2) Have safe bonds (SHY) recently beaten stocks (SPY) on a simple 0–100 strength score (RSI)? If both are yes, that voter buys TQQQ; otherwise it holds USFR. All voters are equally weighted.
Stronger growth than the S&P: out-of-sample annualized return ~38.6% vs ~22.6%, with a disciplined, rules-based switch to leveraged tech only in calm markets when bonds outperform stocks. Accept higher drawdowns for higher upside.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.27 | 1.07 | 0.21 | 0.46 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 369.61% | 13.65% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.83 | |
| 6,130.11% | 40.74% | -0.39% | -0.89% | 1.04 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$623,010.70Regulatory Fees
$1,369.29
Total Slippage
$7,704.64
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 17, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, volatility filter, contrarian momentum, leveraged equity, nasdaq-100, treasury cash parking