Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY | 3x | TQQQ
Today’s Change (Nov 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A market-timing strategy that is usually either in TQQQ, a very aggressive tech-focused fund, or USFR, a safer Treasury fund, based on whether the broad stock market looks calm and how stocks are trending versus short-term Treasuries.
This strategy constantly asks: “Is the U.S. stock market calm enough?” and “Are short-term Treasury bonds acting stronger than stocks?”
It uses SPY (big U.S. stocks) and SHY (short-term Treasuries) only as signal gauges. If the stock market looks calm and SHY’s recent trend score is stronger than SPY’s, it buys TQQQ, a very aggressive fund tied to big tech stocks. Otherwise it moves to USFR, a safer short-term Treasury fund.
It runs this test 15 different ways and blends the results.
Out-of-sample annualized return ~23.5% vs 19.6% for the S&P, achieved by a rules-based rotation between leveraged tech (TQQQ) and cash-like USFR in calm markets. A 15-model blend seeks higher upside with disciplined risk control.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.23 | 1.09 | 0.35 | 0.6 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 441% | 14.18% | -1.04% | -0.34% | 0.86 | |
| 7,555.37% | 40.6% | -7.7% | -11.02% | 1.25 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$765,537.26Regulatory Fees
$1,521.44
Total Slippage
$10,523.13
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 17, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, market timing, leveraged equity, defensive rotation, volatility filter, momentum/rsi, treasury cash alternative