Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY | 3x
Today’s Change (Apr 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily, 15‑sleeve blend that only buys 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) when the S&P 500 is calm and its recent strength score (RSI) is lower than Treasuries (SHY); otherwise it stays in SHY. Equal‑weighted sleeves diversify timeframes and volatility cutoffs.
What it holds: UPRO (a fund aiming for 3× the S&P 500’s daily move) or SHY (short‑term US Treasuries). SPY is the non‑levered S&P 500 tracker it measures.
Each day, 15 mini‑rules run. For each: if SPY’s recent daily swings (14–42 days) are below 1%, 1.5% or 2%, compare momentum using RSI (a score of recent up vs down days; higher = stronger). If SPY’s RSI is lower than SHY’s, buy UPRO; otherwise hold SHY. If volatility isn’t low, hold SHY. All 15 sleeves are equal‑weighted, so you can end up partly in each.
Out-of-sample: ~49% vs ~22% annualized, Sharpe ~1.60 vs ~1.38, Calmar ~1.33. 15 sleeves lever UPRO only in calm regimes, otherwise SHY—higher upside with controlled risk (drawdowns possible).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.15 | 0.95 | 0.44 | 0.66 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 861.63% | 14.48% | -4.19% | -3.74% | 0.87 | |
| 8,613.04% | 30.58% | -14.31% | -13.87% | 1.21 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$871,304.20Regulatory Fees
$2,285.26
Total Slippage
$14,183.01
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 15, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, leveraged equity vs treasuries, volatility filter, rsi filter, multi-horizon, daily rebalance