Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY | 3x
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Daily 3x SPY tilt triggered by SPY<SHY momentum plus SPY volatility checks; otherwise SHY. Leveraged exposure only when signals align; otherwise bonds or cash-like balance. Backtested since 2009-06-25 with daily rebalancing.
- Assets: SPY (stocks), SHY (short-term bonds), UPRO (3x stock leverage).
- Signals: RSI momentum comparison SPY vs SHY, and SPY volatility (standard deviation) over several lookback periods (14d, 21d, 28d, 35d, 42d).
- Decision: If SPY RSI < SHY RSI AND SPY volatility < a threshold (1%, 1.5%, or 2%) in any lookback window, invest in UPRO (3x SPY). Otherwise invest in SHY. Cash-like weighting may apply when signals are weak.
- Rebalance: Daily.
- Aim: Capture leveraged equity upside when conditions look favorable while using bonds to dampen risk; backtest period starts 2009-06-25.
Out-of-sample edge: Sharpe 1.60 vs 1.38, annualized return ~49% vs ~22%, Calmar ~1.33. Drawdowns higher (~37% vs ~19%), but the strategy delivers stronger upside when conditions line up versus SPY.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.16 | 0.95 | 0.44 | 0.66 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 878.4% | 14.64% | -2.02% | -1.16% | 0.88 | |
| 9,255.46% | 31.25% | -6.98% | -5.53% | 1.24 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$935,545.88Regulatory Fees
$2,267.28
Total Slippage
$14,066.79
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 15, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged equity, tactical rotation, spy/shy rotation, rsi and volatility filters, daily rebalance