Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY | 3x
Today’s Change (Apr 20, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily, 15‑sleeve blend that only buys 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) when the S&P 500 is calm and its recent strength score (RSI) is lower than Treasuries (SHY); otherwise it stays in SHY. Equal‑weighted sleeves diversify timeframes and volatility cutoffs.
What it holds: UPRO (a fund aiming for 3× the S&P 500’s daily move) or SHY (short‑term US Treasuries). SPY is the non‑levered S&P 500 tracker it measures.
Each day, 15 mini‑rules run. For each: if SPY’s recent daily swings (14–42 days) are below 1%, 1.5% or 2%, compare momentum using RSI (a score of recent up vs down days; higher = stronger). If SPY’s RSI is lower than SHY’s, buy UPRO; otherwise hold SHY. If volatility isn’t low, hold SHY. All 15 sleeves are equal‑weighted, so you can end up partly in each.
Out-of-sample edge: Sharpe 1.60 vs 1.38; annualized return ~49% vs ~22%; Calmar ~1.33. A diversified 15-sleeve strategy using Treasuries in risk-off and UPRO in calm targets higher growth with disciplined risk (drawdowns may exceed SPY).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.16 | 0.96 | 0.44 | 0.67 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 941.26% | 14.98% | 6.16% | 5.09% | 0.9 | |
| 9,509.18% | 31.26% | 1.93% | -3.37% | 1.23 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$960,918.15Regulatory Fees
$2,309.92
Total Slippage
$14,350.78
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 15, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, leveraged equity vs treasuries, volatility filter, rsi filter, multi-horizon, daily rebalance