Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY | 3x
Today’s Change (Sep 21, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily, 15‑sleeve blend that only buys 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) when the S&P 500 is calm and its recent strength score (RSI) is lower than Treasuries (SHY); otherwise it stays in SHY. Equal‑weighted sleeves diversify timeframes and volatility cutoffs.
What it holds: UPRO (a fund aiming for 3× the S&P 500’s daily move) or SHY (short‑term US Treasuries). SPY is the non‑levered S&P 500 tracker it measures.
Each day, 15 mini‑rules run. For each: if SPY’s recent daily swings (14–42 days) are below 1%, 1.5% or 2%, compare momentum using RSI (a score of recent up vs down days; higher = stronger). If SPY’s RSI is lower than SHY’s, buy UPRO; otherwise hold SHY. If volatility isn’t low, hold SHY. All 15 sleeves are equal‑weighted, so you can end up partly in each.
Out-of-sample edge: ~39% annualized return vs ~21% SPY, Calmar ~1.08, Sharpe ~1.35. 15-sleeve diversification uses SHY in risk-off and UPRO in calm regimes. Higher upside but larger drawdowns (~37% vs ~19% SPY).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.15 | 0.95 | 0.44 | 0.66 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,040.01% | 15.19% | 1.27% | 4.17% | 0.92 | |
| 10,805.19% | 31.35% | 0.8% | 11.76% | 1.24 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,090,518.55Regulatory Fees
$2,103.01
Total Slippage
$16,396.99
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 15, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, leveraged equity vs treasuries, volatility filter, rsi filter, multi-horizon, daily rebalance