Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY | 2x
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily, multi-horizon, risk-tuned signal system that toggles between a leveraged stock ETF (SSO) and a short-term bond ETF (SHY) using RSI momentum comparisons (SPY vs SHY) and SPY volatility filters, with cash cushioning and three risk presets.
- The fund rebalances every trading day.
- It explores three risk profiles: 1% stdev, 1.5% stdev, and 2% stdev. Each profile has sub-branches for different lookback periods (14, 21, 28, 35, 42 days).
- For a given lookback window, it first checks a volatility rule: is the 14/21/28/35/42-day standard deviation of SPY returns below the profile’s threshold (1, 1.5, or 2)? If yes, the signal may proceed; if no, it tends to a safer result (often SHY or cash).
- If the volatility condition passes, it then compares momentum: RSI(SPY) vs RSI(SHY) over the same window. RSI is a momentum measure; the rule is: if RSI(SPY) < RSI(SHY) (i.e., SPY’s momentum is weaker than SHY’s), the strategy selects SSO (the 2x leveraged SPY proxy). If not, it selects SHY (bond exposure).
- The decision paths are nested across windows (14d through 42d) and across the three stdev profiles, effectively combining signals from multiple horizons.
- When a branch selects SSO or SHY, the corresponding allocation is applied, with “wt-cash-equal” steps indicating cash portions are distributed evenly within those decision nodes.
- The end result is a single daily allocation among SSO, SHY, and cash, biased toward SSO when SPY’s momentum is lagging SHY but volatility is low, and biased toward SHY (or cash) otherwise.
- Assets involved: SPY (not directly held in long form here), SSO (2x SPY), SHY (short-term Treasuries).
Out-of-sample Sharpe 1.67 vs S&P 1.38 and ~33% annualized return vs ~22%, with beta ~0.92 and a cash cushion. A disciplined, multi-horizon signal tilts between 2x SPY and SHY to boost upside while reducing risk.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.12 | 0.52 | 0.36 | 0.6 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 668.82% | 10.91% | -2.02% | -1.16% | 0.63 | |
| 2,529.75% | 18.05% | -4.52% | -3.11% | 1.07 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$262,975.49Regulatory Fees
$1,016.06
Total Slippage
$5,622.79
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 15, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged etf, momentum, trend-following, daily rebalance, risk-controlled