Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY | 2x
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A barbell mix: 50% U.S. insurance stocks, 25% silver, and 25% in a cautious, rules‑based switch that uses volatility and a short‑term strength test (SPY vs SHY) to choose either a 2× S&P 500 fund or T‑bills.
25% is a switch between a 2x S&P 500 fund (SSO, aims to move ~2× the index each day) and T‑bills (SGOV). It only considers stocks when recent S&P 500 swings are small. In calm periods it compares short‑term “heat” (RSI = recent ups vs downs) of stocks (SPY) vs short Treasuries (SHY) across 5 lookbacks and 3 cutoffs; if bonds look stronger, it “buys the dip” via SSO, else holds SGOV. The rest: 25% silver (SIVR) and 50% U.S. insurance: IAK ETF plus PGR and AJG.
Out-of-sample edge: ~43% annual return, stronger risk-adjusted performance than the S&P 500. OOS Sharpe ~2.20 vs ~1.14; max drawdown ~11% vs ~15%; beta ~0.51; Calmar ~3.92. Higher upside, calmer downside.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.15 | 0.57 | 0.42 | 0.65 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 140.2% | 16.35% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.97 | |
| 281.24% | 26.02% | -0.07% | 3.1% | 1.61 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$38,123.95Regulatory Fees
$26.54
Total Slippage
$135.15
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 4, 2025
Trading Setting
Threshold 1%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, risk-on/off, leveraged s&p 500, t-bills, insurance stocks, silver, momentum, volatility
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 8 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
Stocks
IAK
iShares U.S. Insurance ETF
Stocks
PGR
Progressive Corporation
Stocks
SGOV
iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SIVR
abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks