Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY | 2x
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
A defensive mix: 50% U.S. insurance (IAK, PGR, AJG), 25% silver (SIVR), and 25% in a cautious switch that holds T‑bills (SGOV) unless markets are calm and stocks look weak vs short Treasuries—then it uses a 2× S&P 500 fund (SSO).
What you own: 25% runs a switch and 75% is static.
- The switch (25%): It sits in SGOV (a T‑bill fund) unless the S&P 500 (SPY) has been calm (over 14–42 days). When calm, it compares simple “strength scores” (RSI) of SPY vs SHY (short Treasuries). If SPY’s score is lower, it uses SSO (a 2× S&P 500 fund); otherwise it stays in SGOV. This check is split across 15 lookbacks to smooth timing.
- The static 75%: 25% SIVR (silver), 25% IAK (U.S. insurers), 12.5% PGR, 12.5% AJG.
Out-of-sample results show ~2x risk-adjusted return (Sharpe), ~43% annualized return vs ~23% for the S&P, and smaller drawdowns (~11% vs ~15%). Lower beta and a Calmar near 3.9 signal a more resilient, upside-driven alternative to the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.15 | 0.57 | 0.42 | 0.65 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 145.34% | 16.89% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 1 | |
| 298.29% | 27.17% | -1.44% | 12.17% | 1.67 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$39,828.96Regulatory Fees
$26.48
Total Slippage
$134.92
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 4, 2025
Trading Setting
Threshold 1%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, volatility filter, relative strength (rsi), leveraged equities, insurance sector, precious metals, cash/t-bills, defensive
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 8 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
Stocks
IAK
iShares U.S. Insurance ETF
Stocks
PGR
Progressive Corporation
Stocks
SGOV
iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SIVR
abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks