Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY | 2x
Today’s Change (Nov 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A cautious-but-unusual mix: 25% tactical 2x S&P 500 or T-bills, 25% silver, and 50% insurance stocks/funds. It buys leveraged U.S. stocks only when market swings are calm and stocks look temporarily weak versus short-term Treasuries.
This portfolio splits money into 4 parts: a timing sleeve, silver, and heavy insurance exposure.
The timing sleeve watches the U.S. stock market (SPY). If the market has been calm enough, and stocks recently look weaker than short-term Treasury bonds, it buys SSO, a fund that aims for about 2x the S&P 500’s daily move. Otherwise it hides in SGOV, a T-bill fund. It repeats this test across several time windows, then blends the results.
Out-of-sample, this strategy diversifies into insurance stocks and silver, with a cautious SPY-2x sleeve. Calmar ~0.98 and ~17% annualized return, beta ~0.57—strong diversification with risk controls; note higher drawdowns than SPY.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.13 | 0.57 | 0.4 | 0.63 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 176.74% | 17.17% | -1.04% | -0.34% | 1.03 | |
| 300.33% | 24.1% | 3.52% | 1.86% | 1.5 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$40,033.11Regulatory Fees
$31.96
Total Slippage
$165.56
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 4, 2025
Trading Setting
Threshold 1%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation,risk-managed,leveraged s&p 500,short-term treasuries,silver,insurance sector
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 8 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
Stocks
IAK
iShares U.S. Insurance ETF
Stocks
PGR
Progressive Corporation
Stocks
SGOV
iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SIVR
abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks